5. The Senate is the factor: 

President Donald Trump’s hopes of successful a second time period are, effectively, slim. (See MUCH extra on that beneath.) Which, for Republicans, places much more strain on the continuing combat to maintain management of the Senate and, thereby, keep away from complete Democratic management come 2021.

Most impartial political handicappers see Republicans on the shedding finish of this combat.

“Our estimate of good points stays anyplace from 2 to 7 seats for Democrats, and it is solely that lowest attainable quantity within the vary that may imply Republicans eke out saving their majority,” wrote Prepare dinner Political Report Senate editor Jessica Taylor on October 29.
“Total, Democrats are favored to win the Senate, however their odds of successful the White Home are higher,” wrote Kyle Kondik of the College of Virginia’s Crystal Ball.

Republican-held seats in Colorado and Arizona appear misplaced. Maine’s Susan Collins (R) and North Carolina’s Thom Tillis (R) are each slight underdogs heading into Election Day. The Iowa race between Sen. Joni Ernst (R) and Theresa Greenfield (D) looks as if the purest toss-up on the board. Each Georgia races in addition to Montana, South Carolina and Kansas are additionally thought-about aggressive.

Democrats are seemingly to lose just one seat: Alabama Sen. Doug Jones (D) appears headed for defeat.

If the presidential race is not shut — and that is a risk — flip your eye to the battle for the Senate majority. It is shut and it is vastly vital.

4. It is (nonetheless) the coronavirus election:

Irrespective of how many rallies President Donald Trump holds in these closing days earlier than November Three and regardless of how many occasions he insists that the nation is “rounding the nook” on Covid-19, the information of the virus clarify he is mistaken.
Greater than 99,000 new instances of the virus have been reported on Friday, the best single day complete for the reason that virus started in earnest in mid-March. Of the seven highest every day numbers of recent instances in the USA, six have been in October.
Numbers like these — and projections that counsel almost 400,000 People could possibly be useless by February 1 — basically undermine the President’s try to make Tuesday about one thing (something) apart from Covid-19.

Whereas Trump continues to promote a false thought in regards to the state of our combat in opposition to the virus, even a few of his most loyal allies are admitting that issues will not be as he claims them to be.

“We have not overwhelmed it. I believe let’s all agree on that,” Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott advised MeSlop’s Jake Tapper on Sunday of the coronavirus. “All of us want to put on a masks, we want to social distance. … We nonetheless have a number of work to do. Particularly work to do on testing.”
That echoes a sentiment expressed final Sunday by White Home chief of employees Mark Meadows — additionally in an interview with Tapper. “We’re not going to management the pandemic,” mentioned Meadows. “We’re going to management the truth that we get vaccines, therapeutics and different mitigation areas.”

Trump’s isolation — from information and even a few of his personal closest political allies — on Covid-19 is clear. And if he loses on Tuesday — as appears seemingly — that defeat will rightly be laid on the toes of his botched dealing with of this pandemic.

3. The early vote is the story:

It is unattainable to overstate simply how beautiful the early vote numbers we’re seeing throughout the nation truly are.

Greater than 91 million ballots have already been forged within the 2020 election, effectively outpacing the 58 million early votes 4 years in the past and comprising, already, roughly two-thirds of ALL the votes forged within the 2016 contest (136.5 million).

In each Texas and Hawaii, extra individuals have voted early in 2020 than voted in complete in 2016. And 35 states (and Washington, DC) have crossed their midway marks for complete 2016 ballots forged, together with 13 of MeSlop’s 16 most competitively ranked states — Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Wisconsin, Maine, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Nebraska.

Given the polling that implies Democrats are much more seemingly than Republicans to vote early, these large early vote numbers ought to give former Vice President Joe Biden a lead amongst banked votes prior to Tuesday.

The query then turns into whether or not Trump’s turnout operation can match the excessive numbers we have seen in early voting. (Trump’s group has invested closely in day-of turnout operations whereas Biden’s facet leaned towards an early vote emphasis.)

If turnout on Election Day matches what we’ve seen in early vote, we may effectively make a run on the highest turnout presidential election in trendy historical past — when 65.7% of eligible voters forged votes within the 1908 race between William Howard Taft, who received in a landslide, and William Jennings Bryan.

2. Joe Biden’s best path to victory:

In contrast to President Donald Trump, who has a really slender set of paths (path?) to get to 270 electoral votes (see beneath), Joe Biden has a slew of the way to get to that magic quantity.

This is his best route to the presidency.

Begin with the 203 electoral votes which are considered solidly in Biden’s camp. Then give him Nevada (6 electoral votes) and Colorado (9) the place demographics are trending onerous away from Trump’s model of conservatism. That is 218 electoral votes.

Now transfer the standard Democratic states within the higher Midwest — Minnesota (10), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10) — for Biden. Whereas Trump carried Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016 — and got here shut in Minnesota! — there’s little information that implies he would possibly repeat that feat on Tuesday. (Trump is working closest in Minnesota of that trio, and, in accordance to the Actual Clear Politics polling common, he nonetheless trails Biden by virtually 5 factors.) That is 254 electoral votes.

Which brings us to Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes. If Biden wins the state the place he was born, that is 274 electoral votes — and the White Home. 

Such a state of affairs would permit Biden to lose Florida, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Iowa and Ohio and nonetheless be elected president. Like I mentioned, he is bought a lot of paths to the White Home.

1. Donald Trump’s solely(?) path to victory:

President Trump is, with out query, an underdog — and a transparent one — going into Tuesday’s election. However, a protracted shot is not a no shot.

And there is a considerably believable — emphasis on “considerably” — electoral map that gets him to 270 electoral votes and a second time period. 

This is how: Give Trump the 125 electoral votes which are solidly in his camp, centered within the higher Plains states and the South. 

Then give him battleground states which have historically favored Republicans on the presidential stage: Texas (38 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Ohio (18) and Arizona (11). That gets Trump to 208 electoral votes.

No Republican has received the White Home in almost a century with out successful Florida, and for Trump to win he wants the Sunshine State — and its 29 electoral votes — too. Which gets Trump to 237 complete.

And whereas polls present Iowa (6) and North Carolina (15) fairly shut, Trump received them each in 2016, so give him the advantage of the doubt there. (The polling in Iowa appears to be like higher for Trump than the polling in North Carolina in the meanwhile.) That is 258 electoral votes.
At which level, it might all come down to Pennsylvania, which seems to be the state within the higher Midwest that Trump carried in 2016 the place he has one of the best probability of successful once more. (Polling in Pennsylvania give Biden a low — however regular — single-digit edge.) Win Pennsylvania and Trump is at 278 electoral votes, and a second time period is his.

Sure, the above state of affairs has a number of “ifs” in it. And would require Trump to pull the type of inside straight he did 4 years in the past. But it surely is not unattainable to think about it occurring — even when it is from the likeliest state of affairs.