April 10 (UPI) — To date, New York and New Jersey have borne the brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic, and researchers say the way in which state and native governments have ready will decide the place it strikes subsequent.

An evaluation of information revealed Friday by the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention suggests there may be two kinds of downside space in america going ahead — densely packed downtown areas, like New York Metropolis, and fewer populated areas within the midwest, for instance.

By Tuesday, there have been practically 400,000 confirmed circumstances of COVID-19, the illness attributable to the brand new coronavirus, throughout the nation, with all 50 states reporting no less than one case, in keeping with the brand new CDC figures.

Nevertheless, prevalence of the virus different extensively between states, with locations like New York Metropolis reporting roughly 915 circumstances per 100,000 folks within the basic inhabitants, whereas Minnesota had fewer than 21 circumstances per 100,000 folks within the basic inhabitants.

Whereas locations like New York Metropolis have seen their well being programs challenged by the pandemic, their “infrastructure that may deal with the surge,” mentioned Leonard Marcus, founding co-director of the Nationwide Preparedness Management Initiative on the Harvard T.H. Chan Faculty of Public Well being and the Harvard Kennedy Faculty of Authorities.

“As we’re listening to about rising hotspots in rural areas, these are notably regarding due to hospital closures and funds cuts in lots of of those areas, their healthcare programs do not have the identical capacities as these in city areas,” Marcus added, throughout a convention name with reporters on Friday. “Time will inform what the impression of the outbreak will be in these areas.”

Inconsistent messages from state governments and delays to implementing social distancing and stay-at-home insurance policies in some components of the nation may make issues worse, he mentioned, mentioning Georgia, Iowa, North Dakota and South Dakota particularly.

Marcus pointed to the 4 states as a result of they noticed their whole variety of COVID-19 circumstances roughly double from March 31 to April 7. Three of them — Iowa and North and South Dakota — play vital roles in america’ food-supply chain, he mentioned. In Iowa, circumstances have been reported amongst employees in food-processing services.

“These states will now be taking part in catch-up,” he mentioned, including that how successfully they achieve this may “impression the nation’s meals provide.”

Whereas Friday’s CDC report doesn’t mission the areas of the nation will be hit subsequent by the outbreak, it exhibits some disturbing tendencies. For instance, Louisiana noticed its whole variety of confirmed circumstances of the virus greater than triple from March 31 to April 7, whereas whole circumstances doubled in close by Mississippi and Alabama, to greater than 2,000 and practically 2,200, respectively.

Illinois noticed its whole variety of folks recognized with COVID-19 soar from just below 6,000 to almost 14,000 over the identical interval. Most of those circumstances are in Chicago, which, like New York Metropolis, has a sturdy healthcare system. However the state was additionally certainly one of a number of — New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Louisiana, Washington, California Massachusetts and Georgia — to report greater than 300 deaths attributable to the virus.

The states with the very best case-fatality charges so far embody Kentucky, at 5.7 %; Oklahoma, at 4.6 %; and Michigan, at 4.5 %. New York Metropolis’s case-fatality charge by way of April 7 was 5.three %, in keeping with the CDC report.

California, then again, has been a relative success story, Marcus mentioned. The state applied social distancing measures early, and ready its well being system for a surge in circumstances — and it has saved its case-fatality charge pretty low, at 2.Four % consequently.

“States are reaching peaks at totally different instances, so if the nation is nimble in its response, we should always be in a position to meet the wants of those states,” he famous. “On reflection, although, it will have been higher if we had an total nationwide technique on outbreak response, the place everybody would be doing the identical factor on the identical time, partially as a result of folks journey from state to state. A uniform strategy would have stood us higher as a rustic.”