A have a look at the nonetheless compiling returns demonstrates that Democrats made the correct wager. Biden is projected to win an election that another Democrat, particularly a extra liberal one, may very properly have lost.

Whereas Biden is main in states value 306 electoral votes, the race for president was really selected a razor’s edge. Biden and President Donald Trump ended up inside a few factors of one another within the states that made the distinction.

Biden is at present forward by lower than a level in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With out successful not less than some mixture of those states, Biden wouldn’t have the ability to attain the mandatory 270 electoral votes to win the election.

The truth that the election was nearer than pre-election polls indicated is likely to be used as an indictment of Biden. It should not be.

Examine how Biden is doing to Democratic Home candidates in every of those states. If Biden had been a weaker candidate than common, these Democrats ought to, on the entire, be outrunning Biden.

The other occurred: Biden is outrunning the Home Democrats in all these pivotal states.

Extra to the purpose, Republican candidates for the Home are literally getting extra votes than their Democratic counterparts in all these states. As of this writing, the margin is lower than 10,000 in Arizona, whereas it is over 90,000 in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

(Observe: Democrats and Republicans had a candidate on the poll for every Home race in these states.)

In different phrases, it appears fairly conceivable that the baseline Democrat may not have really won the states that she or he would have wanted to win the Electoral Faculty.

The sample of Biden doing higher than Democratic Home candidates was seen within the nationwide Home and presidential fashionable vote, as properly. This matched pre-election polling through which Biden’s lead over Trump was bigger than the Democratic benefit on the generic congressional poll.

As I famous earlier than, it’s uncommon for an challenger in a presidential race to run forward of his get together within the race for Home management when his get together controls the Home. The reason is that you just’d anticipate Trump and the Home Democrats to have some form of an incumbency benefit.

Clearly, it’s troublesome to disentangle why Biden was working forward of the congressional Democrats. It might be as a result of Biden was unusually sturdy or Trump was unusually weak. It is most likely a little bit of each.

What is obvious is that Biden was preferred by the citizens. Biden’s favorable ranking was above his unfavorable in pre-election polling. The nationwide exit ballot confirmed Biden with a 52% favorable ranking to 46% unfavorable ranking. Biden won as a result of he took virtually the entire voters (94%) who had a favorable view of him.
That was in sharp distinction to 4 years in the past when Hillary Clinton’s unfavorable ranking was above her favorable ranking within the exit polls. Simply 43% of voters held a favorable view of Clinton. This was above Trump’s (38%), but it surely left 18% of the citizens with an unfavorable ranking of each Clinton and Trump. Trump won these voters by 17 factors.

Biden, merely put, closed the door on Trump’s making this a contest between the lesser of two evils.

One (of a variety of causes) that Biden was higher preferred than Clinton may have needed to do with ideology.

Biden was seen as extra reasonable than Trump by voters in pre-election polling. This stood in distinction to Trump being considered as extra reasonable than Clinton in 2016.

Biden, in fact, ran as a mainstream Democrat.

Biden used his ideological place as an argument for his candidacy through the main season when he ran a few factors stronger than Sens. Bernie Sanders and particularly Elizabeth Warren generally election polling.
Biden’s perception was backed up by years of analysis suggestive of the truth that candidates on the ends of the ideological spectrum are inclined to do worse.

You could possibly see this play out in races like that for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Biden simply took the district by almost 7 factors and earned himself an additional electoral vote in a state that awards an electoral vote to the winner of every of its congressional districts.

The Democratic candidate for the Home, Kara Eastman, wasn’t so lucky. She lost by 6 factors to Republican Rep. Don Bacon. The truth that there was such a sturdy distinction between the Home and presidential voting patterns in an age of great polarization is telling. Eastman was backed by the progressive teams Justice Democrats and stood for “Medicare for All.”

That distinction between Biden and the left may have made all of the distinction in what ended up being a presidential race that took 4 days to name. With out Biden on the high of the ticket, Trump may very properly have shocked the world once more and earned a second time period within the White Home.