In our final pre-election electoral faculty outlook, we’re shifting Arizona from lean Democratic to a real toss-up battleground state. It’s a state that has been on the very coronary heart of the Democratic Occasion’s mission to broaden its map over the past decade and 2020 would be the 12 months it flips. Nonetheless, the polling out of the state within the final 24 hours signifies it’s a margin-of-error tossup state. Arizona has solely been received by a Democratic presidential candidate as soon as within the final 70 years and that is when Invoice Clinton received the state in his 1996 reelection marketing campaign.
The shifting demographics within the state coupled with the large Democratic success within the suburbs throughout the Trump period give each purpose for Democrats to be hopeful there. However Trump’s ballot numbers there look markedly higher than they do within the different states we’ve leaning Democratic on the map, which probably places this state extra inside his attain than these within the higher Midwest and Rust Belt.
Trump’s path to 270 relies upon an explosive Election Day turnout to make up for the benefit Biden seems to have within the document breaking early, mail-in and absentee vote. In our final outlook, Trump has 20 states totaling 125 electoral votes solidly in his tally. In the event you add Texas’ 38 electoral votes at the moment leaning his approach, the President is at 163 electoral votes.
We at the moment have six states and one congressional district in Maine as pure toss-up battlegrounds totaling 96 electoral votes.
It’s clear that Trump’s path to reelection is way narrower than Biden’s, nevertheless it stays a viable one. And, whereas 2020 is a essentially totally different political atmosphere than 2016, he confirmed the power to pave such a path simply 4 years in the past.
Table of Contents
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (125 complete)
Texas (38) (38 complete)
Arizona (11), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18) (96 complete)
Colorado (9), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10) (76 complete)
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12) (203 complete)